The Markets Today

Hi again. It has been about 3 months since my last confession (posting). This is mainly because I have been working away from home and mostly without computer access. As far as the economy goes, I believe it is still in a contraction mode and will be so well into 2009. How much it will contract is any body's guess. However, we will continue to see the various sectors of the economy trip, stumble and fall (the title of an old song from the Mama's and Papa's) as the banking/housing torturing continues to unfold. The markets will probably head south and maybe even test the lows of 2002 before all is said and done.

I expect that somewhere along the line energy prices will sharply rebound, but fail to make new highs. The trend appears to be down and perhaps the $70-80 level is a good place to find balance. Most notable is the fact of sharp rallies in the area of $200-300 in the markets and many suspect that the downturn may be ending. Do not be fooled. Rallies of this magnitude are far more common in bear markets and hardly ever signal bottoms. They are mostly propelled by short covering and this type of rally is short lived.

Stocks I like for the long run are coal, food and natural gas related, such as {UPL, CHK, APA, AGU, CF, MOS, BTU, CNX, to name a few}. Believe it or not and contrary to Goreovian thinking, evidence is piling up that we may be entering some sort of mini ice age. We are well overdue for the next one looking at the cycles over the last many hundreds of thousands of years. If global heating was in fact the truth, we would continue to see ever warmer summers and milder winters year after year. Nada, honey. It hasn't happened. Man is no more responsible for the earth's climate than some Martian seeding the clouds while roving around in his/her spaceship.

So in this respect, with the possible ice-age-a-cometh, those aforementioned sectors should do well provided that all the Wall Street computers don't freeze up during winter. The new trading mecca will have to be moved to Texas as the Northern glaciers stream down from Canada and devour North American cities. It could happen, cupcake. Now, let the environmental wackos explain that one.

You know, it always pays to think for yourself, even if you sometimes get it wrong. Take a long look around you and discover how many "things" or events move in cycles. One could make a case that everything on this earth is cycle-oriented in some kind of fashion. You know this to be true when you see the Chicago Cubs with the best record in baseball and it is September. This may be the year for them to take it all and complete their 80 or 90 year cycle, or whatever the number of years since their last World Series Championship. Oh, by the way, the Detroit football Lions went 4-0 in the pre-season. Will they be in the Super Bowl of 2009? Hint, hint!

I am not a baseball fan, but you name the thing (for lack of a better word) and try to see some kind of cycle going on. Perhaps this is true of the entire Universe. Nevertheless, time is relatively short for each of our lives and to live without individual truth is a downright shame. By this I mean that for each of us we have our own truth, that is the thing we know that we came here to experience. The main reasons so many of us fail to live fully is because of unrealized fears and mistrusts. These enter into our minds and thoughts over time and constantly interupt our ability to think fully for ourselves.

What does any of this have to do with trading or investing in the markets? Trading in a market is just something, among many things that one can chose to do. And like all other endeavors you may follow the script or previous methodologies (the consensus way of doing things) or strike out on your own adventure and create the "way" or path that is truly YOU. That is accomplished when you decide to go your own way. You can still watch out for known or expected troubles, but you always have the chance to make your adventure your own. There is no right way or wrong way; only YOUR way. There is no one on this planet that can absolutely judge "your way" of doing things. We will reserve that right to the Creator.

And if life is not an adventure for you, somewhere along your travels you have become "droned" which is to become filled with mush between the ears. Listening to the Democrats and many Republicans will do that quicker than anything...lol. But hey, it is your life and only you know what is true for you and the sooner you live that truth, the quicker you see that most things don't matter and that to live in constant pain and sorrow achieves little. I, as like all others, can not tell anyone how to think or even what to think. Many will try. It is strictly up to the individual to find their own way and live their own lives. Part of our difficulties arise when we are living someone elses' way or truth. The Creator(s) have given us freedom to be us. Nothing can destroy that idea.

And one more thing, I am not voting for Obama.