Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Sell All Rallies

Here is the deal. The market is upset (poor baby) that the Fed did not lower interest rates by a half point on Tuesday. If the market is calling for a 1/2 point move in rates, doesn't that mean that it is concerned about a serious downturn in the economy or a recession? Then, if that is the case, how can we explain the market rallying and nearing all-time highs? The market is not acting anywhere near as bad as it would if a recession was on the horizon in the next 3-6 months.

This leads me to believe that there is little chance of a recession or there is one huge disconnect in the markets from reality. Another factor, as I see it, is how can we continue to build economic prosperity based on credit and cheap money? Apparently, this can go on forever and these debts will never come due or ever have to be paid off. So go ahead Fed and lower rates so that we can borrow into infinity at ever cheaper rates. Then the socialist government, lead by the Hillary Dems, can create mountains of inflation and raise taxes so that all can be rectified. Laugh if you will. Some predictions actually turn out to be dead on.

It is interesting how so many are always so bullish about the markets. You could see this today as the market blasted off at the open and was up about 270 points in the Dow. I am sure the market makers had a field day over-exploiting little Billy-The-Bull, who will buy anything at any time, with little regard as to cost. Because as we all know, markets go nowhere but up. Thus, Wall-Street has continued to create an army of investors and traders who will buy stocks no matter what. That was evident today as the market kept rallying into every little dip. The Bulls were trying to find a bottom all day long as the market gave up its gains and then some. There was a small rally into the close as short covering ensued. That was all that this snap back was to begin with.

So if the market continues to sell off in earnest (a big if), Mister and Misses Bull will be buying every step of the way down; all in an attempt to buy at the bottom. Good Lord, who teaches this nonsense? After all, we both know that markets never go down and that any perceived sell-off is only a short-term illusion. The markets are incredible in that they behave so one-sided.

It is obvious that we are headed to new highs into the New Year. The Bulls will never give up buying and this will propel us into the stratosphere. For most of you, go ahead and buy your fool heads off. Buy until you drop and cannot stand to buy anymore for fear of making a killing and taking all of Wall Street's money. For me, I am a seller because someone has to be different and take the other side of the trade. For those who want to take a chance, sell into any strength and buy puts at a reasonable price. And above all, get ready for a Battle Royale as the Bulls beg for mercy from the selling pressure inflicted by the Bears. It is no fun always buying and being so one sided. The object of this game is to have fun, as money comes to those who do.